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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 32

New England Patriots 31 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.94 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model