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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 53

New England Patriots 34 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 7-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. PENALTY on NE-36-B.King, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.65 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.47 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP