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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Jets
4th & 4 at the 47
New York Jets 13 – New England Patriots 41
What Actually Happened
(11:19) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 85-T.Wesco (91-D.Wise).
The Three Options
GO
-0.10 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.99 EP
- 57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.42 EP
KICK
-0.71 EP
- 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
- 59% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT
-0.26 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.26 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
