4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 21

New England Patriots 14 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 6-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 300th career FG, 35th all-time to reach that milestone.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model