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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2021-10-24 · 20:20 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

IND
44.3%
SF
55.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • SF on 7 more days rest than IND
  • QB edge to SF: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.213 vs Carson Wentz (IND) +0.113 EPA/dropback (SF starting Jimmy Garoppolo in place of Trey Lance)
  • SF defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

IND 23
–
SF 25
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

IND

Julian Blackmon S Out Achilles
Kemoko Turay DE Out Groin
Jordan Wilkins RB Out Non-Football Illness
Rock Ya-Sin CB Out Ankle
Braden Smith T Out Foot
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Quadricep

SF

Maurice Hurst DT Out Calf
Javon Kinlaw DT Out Knee
Trey Lance QB Out Knee
Trent Williams T Doubtful Ankle
Marcell Harris LB Questionable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 30
–
SF 18

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:18 TD SF (10:18) 25-E.Mitchell up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – SF 6
  • Q1 08:12 FG SF (8:12) 14-J.Slye 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. IND 0 – SF 9
  • Q1 05:21 TD IND (5:21) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught SF 9. 9-YAC IND 6 – SF 9
  • Q1 02:32 FG SF (2:32) 14-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. IND 7 – SF 12
  • Q2 01:05 TD IND (1:05) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – SF 12
  • Q3 03:49 TD IND (3:49) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – SF 12
  • Q4 13:13 TD SF (13:13) (No Huddle) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught IND 2. 2-YAC IND 20 – SF 18
  • Q4 07:04 FG IND (7:04) 6-M.Badgley 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 23 – SF 18
  • Q4 02:56 TD IND (2:56) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass deep right to 11-M.Pittman for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught SF 4. 4-YAC IND 29 – SF 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (8:12) 14-J.Slye 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 55%

    (2:32) 14-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (14:04) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to IND 33, Center-46-T.Pepper. 21-N.Hines to IND 38 for 5 yards (89-C.Woerner; 27-D.Johnson).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 35%

    (11:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to SF 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 6-M.Sanu.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (9:35) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 65 yards to IND 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-81-T.Sherfield.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 79 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to IND 30, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to SF 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 20 for no gain (49-M.Adams).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 24%

    (11:28) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to SF 46 for 3 yards (1-J.Ward, 26-J.Norman). FUMBLES (26-J.Norman), recovered by IND-16-A.Dulin at SF 46. San Francisco challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 11:22.)

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 33%

    (8:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to SF 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-45-E.Speed.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:31) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to IND 45, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 14 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:28) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to SF 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 6-M.Sanu pushed ob at SF 30 for 13 yards (45-E.Speed).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 84%

    (7:04) 6-M.Badgley 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to SF 45, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-B.Aiyuk to IND 47 for 8 yards (45-E.Speed).