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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to IND 45, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 83, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 41, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model