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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 16

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 14-J.Slye 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.77 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model