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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to IND 33, Center-46-T.Pepper. 21-N.Hines to IND 38 for 5 yards (89-C.Woerner; 27-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.59 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model