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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 65 yards to IND 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-81-T.Sherfield.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.10 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 83, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 41, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP