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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 44

Indianapolis Colts 7 – San Francisco 49ers 12

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to SF 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 6-M.Sanu.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.72 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model