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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 24

Indianapolis Colts 20 – San Francisco 49ers 18

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 6-M.Badgley 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.78 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model