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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Thursday 2021-10-14 · 20:20 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

TB
63.8%
PHI
36.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.180 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Tom Brady (TB): +0.256 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI defense: +0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
PHI 21
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

TB

Lavonte David LB Out Ankle
Rob Gronkowski TE Out Ribs
Antoine Winfield S Out Concussion
Ryan Jensen C Questionable Hip
Pat O'Connor DE Questionable Calf
Jason Pierre-Paul LB Questionable Shoulder

PHI

Lane Johnson T Out Not injury related - personal matter

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 28
–
PHI 22

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:32 TD TB (9:32) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 80-O.Howard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – PHI 0
  • Q1 06:05 TD PHI (6:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – PHI 6
  • Q1 00:42 TD TB (:42) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 81-A.Brown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – PHI 7
  • Q2 02:00 TD TB (2:00) 7-L.Fournette up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – PHI 7
  • Q3 05:50 TD TB (5:50) 7-L.Fournette up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 27 – PHI 7
  • Q3 02:21 TD PHI (2:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 28 – PHI 13
  • Q4 05:57 TD PHI (5:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 28 – PHI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (14:19) 8-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to TB 21, Center-45-R.Lovato. 85-J.Mickens to TB 33 for 12 yards (54-S.Bradley).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (12:14) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:41) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to TB 39, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:13) 8-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to PHI 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:34) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to TB 31, Center-45-R.Lovato. 85-J.Mickens to TB 35 for 4 yards (54-S.Bradley).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:37) 8-A.Siposs punts 40 yards to TB 22, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:42) 8-A.Siposs punts 55 yards to TB 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 85-J.Mickens pushed ob at TB 21 for 5 yards (54-S.Bradley).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (2:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (:49) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to PHI 25, Center-46-C.Tinker. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 33 for 8 yards (79-P.O'Connor). PENALTY on PHI-33-J.Scott, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 25.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 80%

    (12:43) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 37%

    (9:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 80-O.Howard.