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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 28

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model