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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 62

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(:37) 8-A.Siposs punts 40 yards to TB 22, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.41 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model