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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.73 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP