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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 3 at the 6
Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28
What Actually Happened
(2:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.15 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
- 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.54 EP
KICK
+2.42 EP
- 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT
+0.45 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
