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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to TB 39, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.67 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model