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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 46

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(9:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 80-O.Howard.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.73 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model