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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Urban Meyer
Sunday 2021-10-10 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

TEN
54.9%
JAX
45.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX defense: +0.174 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.166 vs Ryan Tannehill (TEN) -0.052 EPA/dropback
  • TEN defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • JAX on 3 more days rest than TEN

Predicted Final Score

TEN 22
–
JAX 21
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

TEN

Aaron Brewer C Out Knee
Jayon Brown LB Out Knee
Tommy Hudson TE Out Ankle
Julio Jones WR Out Hamstring
Brett Kern P Out right Groin
Racey McMath WR Out Quadricep
Denico Autry DE Questionable Hip
Bud Dupree LB Questionable Knee
Taylor Lewan T Questionable Toe
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR Questionable Hamstring
Ty Sambrailo T Questionable Foot

JAX

Roy Robertson-Harris DT Out Ankle
Tyson Campbell CB Questionable Toe
Lerentee McCray DE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 37
–
JAX 19

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:19 TD TEN (14:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-D.Arnold to JAX 30 for 5 yards (24-E.Molden). FUMBLES (24-E.Molden), RECOVERED by TEN-31-K.Byard at JAX 30. 31-K.Byard for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – JAX 0
  • Q1 11:27 TD JAX (11:27) 25-J.Robinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – JAX 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD TEN (15:00) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – JAX 6
  • Q2 10:01 TD JAX (10:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 86-J.Hollister for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – JAX 12
  • Q2 05:56 TD TEN (5:56) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 85-M.Pruitt for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – JAX 13
  • Q2 00:36 FG TEN (:36) 14-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend. TEN 24 – JAX 13
  • Q3 09:55 TD TEN (9:55) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 30 – JAX 13
  • Q4 13:54 TD JAX (13:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 31 – JAX 19
  • Q4 02:00 TD TEN (2:00) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 37 – JAX 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:12) 8-J.Townsend punts 39 yards to JAX 18, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (10:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 86-J.Hollister for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 66%

    (2:27) 15-M.Wright 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (:36) 14-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 14 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:04) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to TEN 48, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 39%

    (6:17) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles right end ran ob at JAX 36 for 8 yards (42-A.Wingard).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 19 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 37%

    (3:45) 8-J.Townsend punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:28) 8-J.Townsend punts 44 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (10:28) 24-C.Hyde up the middle to TEN 4 for -3 yards (35-C.Jackson). JAX-65-B.Linder was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:02) 8-J.Townsend punts 42 yards to JAX 33, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 85-D.Arnold.