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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(10:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 86-J.Hollister for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.72 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model