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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Tennessee Titans
4th & 19 at the 45
Tennessee Titans 31 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13
What Actually Happened
(3:45) 8-J.Townsend punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.66 EP
-
25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.24 EP
- 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP
KICK
-1.05 EP
- 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
- 63% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
