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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model