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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 16

Tennessee Titans 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(:36) 14-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.31 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 16, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model