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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 15-M.Wright 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.25 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model