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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – Tennessee Titans 31

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 24-C.Hyde up the middle to TEN 4 for -3 yards (35-C.Jackson). JAX-65-B.Linder was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +4.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.87 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model