NO @ NE — 4th & Data

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HC Sean Payton

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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick

Sunday 2021-09-26 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

28.9%

71.1%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NO offense: -0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
NE defense: -0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
QB edge to NE: Mac Jones (NE) +0.112 vs Jameis Winston (NO) -0.047 EPA/dropback
NO defense: -0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 17

–

NE 25

Projected margin: NE by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

NO

Erik McCoy C Out Calf

NE

Adrian Phillips S Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

Trenton Brown T Questionable Calf

Josh Uche LB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 28

–

NE 13

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:40 TD NO (7:40) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – NE 0
Q2 01:50 TD NO (1:50) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short middle to 1-M.Callaway for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [23-K.Dugger]. Penalty on NE-31-J.Jones, Defensive Holding, declined. NO 13 – NE 0
Q2 00:39 FG NE (:39) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NO 14 – NE 3
Q3 15:00 TD NO (15:00) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at NE 34. 27-M.Jenkins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – NE 3
Q3 01:35 FG NE (1:35) 6-N.Folk 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 35th consecutive FG, t-8th all-time (Vinatieri & Tucker). NO 21 – NE 6
Q4 09:28 TD NE (9:28) 10-M.Jones pass deep right to 84-K.Bourne for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 21 – NE 12
Q4 02:41 TD NO (2:41) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-T.Hill. 7-T.Hill right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – NE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(13:44) 4-B.Gillikin punts 51 yards to NE 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(12:48) 7-J.Bailey punts 64 yards to NO 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-D.Harris to NO 31 for 25 yards (52-H.Langi, 25-B.Bolden).
Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP

p(convert) 60%

(5:31) 7-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to NO 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 66%

(:13) 6-A.Rosas 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(14:23) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(12:54) 4-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to NE 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 38 for 8 yards (48-J.Gray, 50-A.Dowell). PENALTY on NE-50-C.Winovich, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 30.
Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 50

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 25%

(9:04) 7-J.Bailey punt is BLOCKED by 50-A.Dowell, Center-49-J.Cardona, RECOVERED by NO-88-T.Montgomery at NE 49. 88-T.Montgomery to NE 49 for no gain (49-J.Cardona).
Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 92%

(4:16) 6-A.Rosas 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 81%

(:39) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(13:43) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to NO 30, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(10:47) 4-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.
Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 8

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

(1:35) 6-N.Folk 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 35th consecutive FG, t-8th all-time (Vinatieri & Tucker).
Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(:03) 4-B.Gillikin punts 56 yards to NE 5, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 23 for 18 yards (53-Z.Baun).
Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(12:45) 7-J.Bailey punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
Q4 NO 4th & 18 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(10:38) 4-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to NE 44, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-G.Olszewski to NO 44 for 12 yards (40-A.Armah).
Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 47 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 32%

(1:24) (No Huddle) 10-M.Jones left guard to NO 44 for 3 yards (56-D.Davis).
Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 39 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 53%

(:41) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 25-B.Bolden pushed ob at NO 25 for 14 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 25 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.81 EP

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 84%

(:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at NO 2. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 22 for 20 yards (25-B.Bolden).