Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 21 – New England Patriots 6

(:03) 4-B.Gillikin punts 56 yards to NE 5, Center-49-Z.Wood. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 23 for 18 yards (53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.65 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model