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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 47

New England Patriots 13 – New Orleans Saints 28

What Actually Happened

(1:24) (No Huddle) 10-M.Jones left guard to NO 44 for 3 yards (56-D.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.55 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model