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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 67

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 7-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to NO 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP