Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 58

New England Patriots 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

(14:23) 7-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.90 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -2.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model