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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 18

New Orleans Saints 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 6-A.Rosas 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.62 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model