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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 25

New England Patriots 13 – New Orleans Saints 28

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at NO 2. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 22 for 20 yards (25-B.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.42 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.81 EP