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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 16:25 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

TEN
6.1%
SEA
93.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SEA: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.466 vs Ryan Tannehill (TEN) -0.480 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: -0.304 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.212 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

TEN 12
–
SEA 34
Projected margin: SEA by 22 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

TEN

Caleb Farley CB Out Shoulder
Jayon Brown LB Questionable Hamstring
Anthony Firkser TE Questionable Knee
David Long LB Questionable Hamstring
Bud Dupree LB Questionable Knee

SEA

D'Wayne Eskridge WR Doubtful Concussion
Rashaad Penny RB Doubtful Calf
Damien Lewis G Questionable Groin
Bryan Mone DT Questionable Elbow
D.J. Reed CB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 33
–
SEA 30

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:30 FG SEA (9:30) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. TEN 0 – SEA 3
  • Q1 02:50 FG TEN (2:50) 14-R.Bullock 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – SEA 3
  • Q2 08:23 FG TEN (8:23) 14-R.Bullock 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 6 – SEA 3
  • Q2 06:47 TD SEA (6:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN [31-K.Byard]. TEN 6 – SEA 9
  • Q2 05:24 TD SEA (5:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-C.Carson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SEA-66-G.Jackson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. TEN 6 – SEA 16
  • Q2 01:09 FG TEN (1:09) 14-R.Bullock 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 9 – SEA 17
  • Q2 00:21 TD SEA (:21) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – SEA 23
  • Q3 10:46 TD TEN (10:46) 22-D.Henry right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 15 – SEA 24
  • Q4 13:16 TD SEA (13:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 18-F.Swain for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – SEA 30
  • Q4 12:30 TD TEN (12:30) 22-D.Henry left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 22 – SEA 30
  • Q4 00:32 TD TEN (:32) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 29 – SEA 30
  • Q5 04:50 FG TEN (4:50) 14-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 33 – SEA 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (13:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (11:30) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to SEA 30, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 95%

    (9:30) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (2:50) 14-R.Bullock 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 96%

    (8:23) 14-R.Bullock 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (1:09) 14-R.Bullock 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 27%

    (5:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to TEN 8, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 82%

    (:01) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (10:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to TEN 8, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-C.Rogers pushed ob at TEN 18 for 10 yards (31-D.Dallas).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 76%

    (5:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Hudson [51-K.Hyder].

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to TEN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 32 for 13 yards (44-N.Bellore).