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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 6

Tennessee Titans 6 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 14-R.Bullock 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 6, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model