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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 12

Tennessee Titans 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 14-R.Bullock 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model