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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 30 – Tennessee Titans 23

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to TEN 8, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-C.Rogers pushed ob at TEN 18 for 10 yards (31-D.Dallas).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP