4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP