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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 30 – Tennessee Titans 23

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to TEN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 32 for 13 yards (44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.43 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model