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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.53 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 13, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP