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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2020-01-12 · 15:05 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🥶 Cold Spread 10.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

HOU
22.8%
KC
77.2%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • KC on 6 more days rest than HOU
  • HOU defense: +0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.211 vs Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.178 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20
–
KC 30
Projected margin: KC by 10 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

HOU

Jahleel Addae S Questionable Knee
Jordan Akins TE Questionable Hamstring
Keion Crossen CB Questionable Hamstring
Darren Fells TE Questionable Hip
Will Fuller WR Questionable Groin
Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Hamstring
Kenny Stills WR Questionable Knee

KC

Morris Claiborne CB Out Not Injury Related
Chris Jones DT Questionable Calf
Travis Kelce TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 31
–
KC 51

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 32 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:07 TD HOU (12:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 12-K.Stills for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – KC 0
  • Q1 10:13 TD HOU (10:13) 2-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 52-B.Mingo, Center-41-J.Winchester, RECOVERED by HOU-32-L.Johnson at KC 10. 32-L.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – KC 0
  • Q1 01:24 TD HOU (1:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 87-D.Fells for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – KC 0
  • Q2 10:58 FG HOU (10:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. HOU 24 – KC 0
  • Q2 10:00 TD KC (10:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 26-Dam.Williams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 24 – KC 6
  • Q2 08:11 TD KC (8:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 24 – KC 13
  • Q2 06:37 TD KC (6:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 24 – KC 20
  • Q2 00:50 TD KC (:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [41-Z.Cunningham]. The Replay Official reviewed the legal forward pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. HOU 24 – KC 27
  • Q3 11:28 TD KC (11:28) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-26-Dam.Williams, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. HOU 24 – KC 34
  • Q3 04:43 TD KC (4:43) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 24 – KC 40
  • Q3 00:29 TD HOU (:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 30 – KC 41
  • Q4 13:56 TD KC (13:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 81-B.Bell for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 31 – KC 47
  • Q4 08:10 FG KC (8:10) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. HOU 31 – KC 51

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:13) 2-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 52-B.Mingo, Center-41-J.Winchester, RECOVERED by HOU-32-L.Johnson at KC 10. 32-L.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 40%

    (7:15) 2-D.Colquitt punts 30 yards to HOU 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-D.Carter.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 17 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (2:20) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to KC 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-35-K.Crossen at KC 6.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to HOU 38, Center-41-J.Winchester. 14-D.Carter to HOU 49 for 11 yards (44-D.O'Daniel).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 95%

    (10:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:32) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-J.Reid. 20-J.Reid right end to HOU 33 for 2 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 32%

    (2:57) 9-B.Anger punts 39 yards to KC 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 10 for 1 yard (35-K.Crossen).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 70%

    (:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (8:42) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to KC 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 48%

    (11:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins [94-T.Suggs].

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 98%

    (8:10) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 25-D.Johnson pushed ob at HOU 38 for 6 yards (56-B.Niemann).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 48%

    (5:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to HOU 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-13-B.Pringle.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (1:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at KC 25 for -17 yards (55-F.Clark).