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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 42

Houston Texans 31 – Kansas City Chiefs 48

What Actually Happened

(11:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins [94-T.Suggs].

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.06 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model