Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 71

Houston Texans 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 34

(8:42) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to KC 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.79 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model