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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 6

Kansas City Chiefs 48 – Houston Texans 31

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +3.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 6, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP