Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 2-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 52-B.Mingo, Center-41-J.Winchester, RECOVERED by HOU-32-L.Johnson at KC 10. 32-L.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.50 EP
52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model