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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 48

Houston Texans 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 9-B.Anger punts 39 yards to KC 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 10 for 1 yard (35-K.Crossen).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.71 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -1.39 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model