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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 2 at the 42
Houston Texans 31 – Kansas City Chiefs 51
What Actually Happened
(5:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short middle to 10-D.Hopkins.
The Three Options
GO
+0.86 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.96 EP
- 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -1.79 EP
KICK
-0.22 EP
- 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
- 52% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT
-0.44 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
