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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2019-12-29 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread -13.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

NO
73.2%
CAR
26.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NO: Will Grier (CAR) -0.273 vs Drew Brees (NO) +0.207 EPA/dropback
  • NO offense: +0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Will Grier (CAR) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

NO 26
–
CAR 17
Projected margin: NO by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NO

Eli Apple CB Out Ankle
Vonn Bell S Out Knee
Marcus Williams S Out Groin
Zach Line RB Questionable Knee

CAR

D.J. Moore WR Out Concussion
Shaq Thompson LB Out Foot
Corn Elder CB Questionable Illness
Marquis Haynes LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 42
–
CAR 10

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:54 TD NO (10:54) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – CAR 0
  • Q1 01:05 TD NO (1:05) 64-W.Clapp reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – CAR 0
  • Q2 12:10 TD NO (12:10) (Shotgun) 3-W.Grier pass short right intended for 88-G.Olsen INTERCEPTED by 53-A.Klein at CAR 14. 53-A.Klein for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – CAR 0
  • Q2 06:32 TD NO (6:32) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-T.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 27 – CAR 0
  • Q2 02:17 TD NO (2:17) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 87-J.Cook for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 34 – CAR 0
  • Q2 00:36 FG CAR (:36) 4-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NO 35 – CAR 3
  • Q3 04:36 TD NO (4:36) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 7-T.Hill for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 41 – CAR 3
  • Q3 00:37 TD CAR (:37) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 42 – CAR 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 62 yards to NO 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (9:04) 6-T.Morstead punts 38 yards to CAR 42, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-27-D.Washington.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 23%

    (7:31) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to NO 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (15:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to NO 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Harris to NO 15 for 4 yards (43-J.Kunaszyk).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to CAR 39, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-C.Hogan.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to CAR 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:10) 5-M.Palardy punts 62 yards to NO 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Harris to NO 35 for 15 yards (56-J.Carter, 42-C.Jones).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to NO 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (:36) 4-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 45%

    (13:14) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NO 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds. PENALTY on NO-20-J.Jenkins, Offensive Holding, 0 yards, enforced at NO 1.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (10:23) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to CAR 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-C.Hogan to CAR 26 for -1 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 32%

    (8:27) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. PENALTY on CAR-18-D.White, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NO 20.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:31) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to CAR 26, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-27-D.Washington.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 81%

    (8:38) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 80-I.Thomas.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:23) 6-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to CAR 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-C.Hogan to CAR 16 for 5 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 34%

    (3:18) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 80-I.Thomas pushed ob at NO 34 for 12 yards (52-C.Robertson).