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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 35

What Actually Happened

(:36) 4-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.31 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 5, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model