Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 82

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 21

(11:10) 5-M.Palardy punts 62 yards to NO 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Harris to NO 35 for 15 yards (56-J.Carter, 42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model