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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 62 yards to NO 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model